Anticipation effects of protectionist U.S. trade policies

• A measure of U.S. trade policy announcement shocks is proposed. Announced restrictions have adverse anticipation effects on major trading partners. decrease in business confidence contributes to these effects. Media attention facilitates the propagation protectionist shocks. This paper investigates international protection. Using micro-level data anti-dumping, countervailing duties, and safeguards, I develop a new for period 1988–2015 that free confounding factors. Estimates using indicate announced, but not yet imposed, give rise contractions partners’ output investment. Counterfactual results decline accounts lion's share narrative analysis quantifies extent newspaper coverage protection shows media The are consistent with an expectations channel policy.